Summary
US inflation hit 4.2% in April 2021 — the highest in 13 years — but the Fed insisted it was 'transitory', caused by pandemic-era supply bottlenecks that would resolve themselves. Most other major central banks adopted the same framework, delaying rate rises.
The inflation data, the Fed's transitory framing, and early dissenting voices who questioned the diagnosis.
Analysis of the two camps: those expecting inflation to resolve and those warning of a structural shift.
Liberation Day tariffs ignite stagflation trap
US–China Strategic Competition
Ukraine war triggers energy supply shock
Russia–Ukraine War
Middle East escalation raises energy risk
Israel–Gaza–Iran War
Rate hike pain drives far-right electoral surge
Western Democratic Fragility